Taking a quick look at the Rays performance at home and on the road against the teams left on the schedule you get a projected total of 85 wins, which is slightly lower than the 87 that their current winning percentage has them targeted for. I had to improvise for the teams they haven't faced yet in the respective locations. Also included below are the list of AL Wild Card winners since the creation of the Wild Card and their win totals. Doesn't look good on paper. The Red Sox slide is keeping us relevant, but the Rangers don't seem to be showing any signs of letting up.
At this point we need to hope for a run similar to what the Phillies had last year and what the Rockies has the year before last. Last year at the 114 game mark the Phillies had a 62-52 record (1 game better than our 61-53 mark). In 2007 the Rockies were 59-55, but their win streak to end the season was unprecedented and you cannot count on something like that to happen. Point being, this isn't out of the realm of possibility. But, both the examples cited are National League teams, which is pretty telling.